Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc55c72fbc733b9567c53f5d7861d0add69facfc20dc51eb1f70241026a81f10c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,584 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 4c | 475.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 16c | 381.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 6c | 356.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 11c | 291.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 48c | 216.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 71c | 211.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 61c | 205.51$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 193.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 55c | 180.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 76c | 177.77$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 168.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…f8d0backed Yes | 51c | 162.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 138.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 129.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 39c | 100.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked No | 16c | 99.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 98.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 49c | 94.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 51c | 88.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 49c | 88.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 47c | 87.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 56c | 84.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked Yes | 62c | 82.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 44c | 79.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 32c | 64.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 44c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 53c | 57.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 53.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 50.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 45c | 49.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 45c | 44.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 48c | 44.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 45c | 43.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd34…376fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 48c | 40.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 51c | 39.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 50c | 38.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2646…82afbacked Yes | 57c | 36.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 67c | 35.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 35.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…226abacked Yes | 48c | 34.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 52c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 45c | 33.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 54c | 32.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 62c | 32.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 51c | 29.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 45c | 26.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed Yes | 49c | 26.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 69c | 26.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 62c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 58c | 24.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…c87bbacked No | 51c | 20.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 55c | 18.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 63c | 16.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 61c | 16.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.