Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5a98de7a2c85657c5a187a4dee9a726f2170d316a109963b980a2d3ce70a529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 255.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 66c | 160.18$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 156$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 137.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 64c | 122.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 120.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 118.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 97.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 51c | 97.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 41c | 96.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 94.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 79.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 57c | 78.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 77.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 70.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 68.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 60c | 64.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 56c | 61.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…1ababacked Yes | 38c | 61.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 60.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 59.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 46c | 57.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 57.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 62c | 50.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…da50backed No | 56c | 48.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 48.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 39c | 45.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3d…09a6backed No | 62c | 44.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 44.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 47c | 42.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 60c | 41.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 39c | 38.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…36bcbacked Yes | 38c | 37.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 36.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 51c | 35.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…332dbacked Yes | 36c | 35.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 35c | 35.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 36c | 35.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 33.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 60c | 29.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5857…aa12backed No | 63c | 29.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 55c | 29.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 55c | 29.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 55c | 29.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 60c | 28.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 26.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 24.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 23.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 63c | 23.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 23.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 69c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.