TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,149 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c255.69$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.768,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed30…87b1backed Yes66c160.18$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0818549.7%92 W · 93 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes45c156$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.565,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No49c137.54$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.797,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa45d…93f1backed No64c122.91$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.456738.8%26 W · 41 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c120.64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No61c118.57$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7840438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No51c97.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2760054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed No51c97.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes41c96.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6747935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes37c94.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.543848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c90$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.184,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c79.43$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No57c78.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.011,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No22c77.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes37c75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes39c75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.751,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes37c70.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6887629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes36c69.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4414434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c68.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.839,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No60c64.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.713845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No56c61.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4714646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8241…1ababacked Yes38c61.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes51c60.88$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.261929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No59c59.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.818,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes46c57.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0513242.4%56 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No39c57.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.64,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No32c51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.315,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc31…3fe8backed No62c50.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.363951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf67b…da50backed No56c48.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes41c48.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes39c48.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.163,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes39c45.45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7236150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3d…09a6backed No62c44.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.56850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No55c44.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes47c42.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.332,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No60c41.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9320958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed No60c41.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.79746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes39c38.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9221052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes53c37.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8310758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c2…36bcbacked Yes38c37.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c36.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.872,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No51c35.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9667158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7b…332dbacked Yes36c35.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes35c35.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.871741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes36c35.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5231936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed No57c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.123538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No58c33.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6433746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes45c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.21,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.664859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1840741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x94ae…d801backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.613950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.657747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No60c29.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.887967.1%53 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5857…aa12backed No63c29.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No55c29.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No55c29.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2513351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No55c29.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2518254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed No60c28.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2910147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No65c26.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.921,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1520842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No55c24.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No62c23.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.651,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe88e…03e8backed No63c23.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.671758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c23.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No46c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No60c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.221451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes69c17.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.412,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.