Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x816e057c303a314b903840eef53a751b5b2e542f105d0861cfbf6003b061aec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 27c | 377.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 211.65$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 191$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 175$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 70c | 142.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 134.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 127.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 40c | 124.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 57c | 107.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 74c | 99.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 91.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 89.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 73c | 87.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 24c | 84.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 82.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 21c | 80.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 27c | 80.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 77.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 77.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 74.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 73.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 71.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 74c | 68.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 29c | 67.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 30c | 65.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 63.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 25c | 62.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 60.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…70acbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 59.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 58.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 70c | 54.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 28c | 54.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 29c | 51.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 51.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 48.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 48.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 32c | 47.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 72c | 41.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 66c | 40.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 30.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…6244backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 29.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 62c | 25.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 74c | 20.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…defdbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 54c | 18.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 70c | 18.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 18.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 75c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.