World Politics · resolved market
Will Ignác Romsics be the next President of Hungary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5d810e46161b629404d2950beed55fb90c8e315664998e336cf6869bad3ca76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 78c | 2,635$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.01 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022b…c363backed Yes | 4c | 1,032$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 12c | 918.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…2173backed Yes | 4c | 520.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67cb…0569backed Yes | 32c | 444.13$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 428.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 23c | 375.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 350$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 317.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 22c | 169$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 23c | 134.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 17c | 63.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…e05fbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…94dbbacked No | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d98…970abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ignác Romsics be the next President of Hungary?this page
- Will Adrienn Laczó be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will András Baka be the next President of Hungary?Yes won
- Will Botond Fülöp be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Péter Bárándy be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Tamás Fabiny be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Ágnes Forsthoffer be the next President of Hungary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.