World Politics · resolved market
Will András Baka be the next President of Hungary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9846df61a1c23ddf4c30afcced568a96a88229adcf04ee005e05e1d22c6da0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 1,696$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 1,306$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 851.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…1028backed Yes | 73c | 824.01$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 12c | 795.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 28c | 771.34$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.78 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 12c | 752.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Yes | 58c | 611.76$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…afc8backed Yes | 60c | 545$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6062…dec2backed Yes | 69c | 435.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 22c | 371$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 6c | 319.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 6c | 309.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67cb…0569backed Yes | 66c | 304.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 62c | 296.09$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 259.87$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 6c | 258.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 4c | 254.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 17c | 217.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 8c | 205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 25c | 198$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…c5cabacked No | 34c | 151.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 18c | 92.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 81.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked Yes | 59c | 76.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 38c | 71.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 70.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 66.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…f5fbbacked Yes | 74c | 53.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 50.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…b56dbacked Yes | 60c | 49.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 60c | 45.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 28c | 43.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 37.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 34c | 35.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…5614backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…0c06backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 62c | 16.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will András Baka be the next President of Hungary?this page
- Will Adrienn Laczó be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Botond Fülöp be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Ignác Romsics be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Péter Bárándy be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Tamás Fabiny be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Ágnes Forsthoffer be the next President of Hungary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.