World Politics · resolved market
Will Adrienn Laczó be the next President of Hungary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58f6d3b026a80b8205b8905f3e81f00dbe2fde07252f9b53e4086a995fd28be7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 3,424$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.62 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…38e8backed No | 78c | 1,636$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277a…a728backed Yes | 21c | 1,235$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 53c | 850$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.27 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…0b2cbacked No | 69c | 723.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 599.99$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 78c | 590.01$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 560.38$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.93 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 21c | 524.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 420.25$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.81 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…320abacked No | 69c | 418.07$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 68c | 368.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.07 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 67c | 314.84$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 64c | 312.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 78c | 285$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc237…0432backed Yes | 36c | 220$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 6c | 189.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…972abacked No | 74c | 188.09$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 170.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 32c | 140.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74fd…03b6backed No | 73c | 136.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 10c | 114.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…e05fbacked No | 72c | 105.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022b…c363backed No | 68c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 103.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd563…92d7backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 89.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 28c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked No | 79c | 71.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 31c | 65.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…2a57backed No | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…fae9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…b86fbacked Yes | 47c | 46.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked No | 55c | 40.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…0c06backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7114…6432backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…0994backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…618bbacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 33.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 63c | 31.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…6105backed No | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4327…d594backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92a…a4d8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 75c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169c…6d94backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 14.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adrienn Laczó be the next President of Hungary?this page
- Will András Baka be the next President of Hungary?Yes won
- Will Botond Fülöp be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Ignác Romsics be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Péter Bárándy be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Tamás Fabiny be the next President of Hungary?No won
- Will Ágnes Forsthoffer be the next President of Hungary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.