Tennis · resolved market
French Open: Sinner vs. Rublev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc65d1866e7074e4287c61c2a61bb92bb5201aa15dbc19b26e02de41c7861a2bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Rublev | 1c | 4,633$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…c481backed Rublev | 8c | 3,750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rublev | 4c | 3,660$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Rublev | 7c | 3,000$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60f…7d85backed Rublev | 7c | 2,200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…7248backed Rublev | 2c | 2,180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Rublev | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Rublev | 7c | 1,278$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Rublev | 7c | 999.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…57bfbacked Rublev | 8c | 970$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed Rublev | 2c | 950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Rublev | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Rublev | 7c | 791.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…9bacbacked Rublev | 6c | 773.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rublev | 6c | 733.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Rublev | 5c | 541.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…be5abacked Rublev | 7c | 495.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Rublev | 7c | 422$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rublev | 5c | 333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Rublev | 5c | 303.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Rublev | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Rublev | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.