Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc67f6deff813a6d0784c5388de34ad3ee27f7a401336da23e12f6e833176423d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 335.98$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 219.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 211.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 62c | 184.88$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 164.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 159.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 33c | 150.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 121$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 44c | 117.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 113.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 104.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 42c | 95.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 51c | 87.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 60c | 83.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 81.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 81.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 76.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 47c | 67.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 67.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 63c | 63.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 62.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed No | 53c | 58.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 38c | 55.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 48c | 55.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 53.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 20c | 53.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 20c | 52.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 52.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 40c | 52.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 50.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 59c | 49.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 39c | 48.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 56c | 47.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 61c | 42.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 40.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 62c | 39.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 52c | 35.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 31.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 50c | 30.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 64c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 63c | 30.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2b…f380backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…0348backed Yes | 69c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 59c | 29.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 27.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 41c | 26.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 48c | 24.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 61c | 24.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 21.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 76c | 21.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 49c | 21.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 47c | 21.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes | 65c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 52c | 20.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 64c | 18.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6954…80f6backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.