Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1304de502c7d3db055471cf91c7937b0fae3cc47a61bd2782346e67c31e3e8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 25c | 499.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 17c | 438.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 329.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 26c | 264.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 27c | 240.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 23c | 223$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 175.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 149.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 71c | 139.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 29c | 137.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 21c | 131.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 130.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 107$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 105.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 23c | 95.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 18c | 94.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 26c | 87.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 85.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 23c | 78.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 25c | 78.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 24c | 75.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 25c | 75.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 74.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 65.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 71c | 60.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 57.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 29c | 51.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes | 31c | 48.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 78c | 46.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 29c | 44.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 40.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 32.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 73c | 32.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 31c | 31.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 79c | 31.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 73c | 29.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…67f7backed No | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 23.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 74c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 20.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 76c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 18.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.