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NBA · resolved market

Austin Reaves: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,687 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No56c1,180$657 inWon+$523.481,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes45c560$252 inLost-$251.543543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c05…fabfbacked No57c440$252 inWon+$187.597673.7%56 W · 20 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+26.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4546…a2c2backed Yes45c302.74$136 inLost-$136.131747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Yes43c290.7$125 inLost-$12523539.1%92 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3043…2cbbbacked No57c199.98$114 inWon+$85.493966.7%26 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdbe…5249backed Yes42c159.52$67 inLost-$671637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce66…59c4backed Yes42c157.74$67 inLost-$66.58520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c0b…d836backed No58c133.98$78 inWon+$56.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No58c110$64 inWon+$46.445657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1752…941dbacked Yes42c100.48$42 inLost-$4250%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x575f…7febbacked Yes43c100$43 inLost-$434535.6%16 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No65c80.76$52 inWon+$28.3590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8214…8b4cbacked Yes45c72.56$32 inLost-$32.560%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f84…4631backed Yes43c69.77$30 inLost-$301520%3 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-55.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe7d1…ba29backed Yes42c45.65$19 inLost-$19.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d2…0814backed Yes43c44.65$19 inLost-$19.22222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed No40c44.33$18 inWon+$26.7355751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84e0…439abacked Yes43c40$17 inLost-$172317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No57c38.5$22 inWon+$16.585740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed No66c37.73$25 inWon+$12.7337352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e3…ac06backed Yes42c35.66$15 inLost-$151338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes48c28$13 inLost-$13.332866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No59c20$12 inWon+$8.221672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.