NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x054a580eca013a6340ed2aa1fd6daec139967ec8b3960bc513f3c11eb6431027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Lakers | 47c | 26,369$12,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,975.3 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nets | 53c | 26,141$13,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,853.83 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Lakers | 45c | 9,731$4,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,342.61 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Nets | 53c | 4,671$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475.37 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Nets | 53c | 4,233$2,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.49 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Lakers | 47c | 3,991$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.4 | 151 | 41.1%62 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Nets | 56c | 2,679$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Nets | 53c | 2,504$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.27 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets | 54c | 1,781$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.54 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 56c | 1,694$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Lakers | 47c | 1,502$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.24 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…2643backed Lakers | 46c | 999.84$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.91 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers | 47c | 821.14$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.99 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Nets | 54c | 488.25$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.66 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Nets | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nets | 53c | 357.13$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Nets | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Nets | 53c | 298.95$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.72 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 63c | 280.81$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Nets | 57c | 237.79$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Lakers | 49c | 203.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Lakers | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Nets | 47c | 199.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Nets | 54c | 175.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Nets | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Nets | 51c | 169.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Nets | 53c | 148.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Lakers | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Lakers | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Nets | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Nets | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Nets | 55c | 63.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Lakers | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Lakers | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Nets | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nets | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…8b74backed Nets | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Nets | 53c | 40.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…8a63backed Nets | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Nets | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…8d40backed Nets | 53c | 31.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Nets | 53c | 31.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a6abacked Nets | 52c | 28.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…ee1cbacked Lakers | 48c | 28.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Nets | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Nets | 54c | 22.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Nets | 58c | 21.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Nets | 55c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Nets | 56c | 18.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Lakers vs. NetsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Nets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Nets: O/U 223.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.