NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Nets: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb248fc94486416c47dfca6720f854b9f4cfa4b5b37c6534c1f1887d969c2d3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 8,113$3,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,861.82 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 5,531$2,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.1 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 47c | 806.51$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.06 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 806.51$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.06 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 30c | 420$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Over | 70c | 420$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 337.72$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.11 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Over | 51c | 329.71$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.56 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 227.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 184$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 52c | 169.77$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 114$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…f3ffbacked Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 47c | 56.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 47c | 46.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Over | 53c | 30.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 47c | 24.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Nets: O/U 221.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Lakers vs. NetsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Nets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Nets: O/U 223.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.