Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc68f7977490ae73236b8de805923bfc4ff00a8ad7f09e87ce51d9f0cb0097156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 20c | 764.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 11c | 505$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 435.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 399.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 12c | 359.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 357.64$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 240.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 209.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 10c | 202.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 199.97$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 15c | 199.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6846…a82fbacked Yes | 31c | 197.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 191.37$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 143.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 133.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 18c | 125.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 15c | 118.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 117.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 9c | 116.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 17c | 114.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 90.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 87.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 81.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 21c | 79.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 72.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 72.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 62.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 58.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 28c | 54.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 25c | 51.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 35c | 43.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 27c | 42.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 37.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 37.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 75c | 36.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 33.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 70c | 20.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 79c | 16.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 70c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.