Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x874b17ca70c8da1d909f8fe10cea6e17e1761cb8f3d0fcb856dc268cf49958e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,088$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 772.82$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.69 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 25c | 522.74$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 2c | 451.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 380$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 342.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 246.61$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 239.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 206.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 16c | 199.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 191.15$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 125.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 77c | 103.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 100.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 27c | 96.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 20c | 86.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 69c | 72.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 62.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 58.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 28c | 55.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 54.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 57c | 51.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 51.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 24c | 51.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 50.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 48.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 31c | 43.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 39.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 37.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 29.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 35c | 29.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 27.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 80c | 18.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 17.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 79c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.