Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e1217c9eb08b3775f3379c2c030b55b230978d1aafc30cae85c04dbcfde63ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 0c | 10,328$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 43c | 2,390$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.06 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 718.86$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 65c | 629.46$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.36 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 487.47$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.41 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 7c | 461.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 39c | 430.51$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.07 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 22c | 367$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 12c | 363.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 63c | 303.73$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 63c | 269.97$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.49 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 256.85$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.93 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 246.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 70c | 238.79$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 66c | 215.75$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 45c | 211.07$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 43c | 166.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 154.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 151.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 69c | 145.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 130.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 121.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 44c | 118.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 115.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 112.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 101.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 101.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 55c | 100.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 99.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 27c | 89.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…187abacked No | 69c | 86.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 85.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 85.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed No | 52c | 81.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 80.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 69.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 65.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1338…fd2cbacked No | 53c | 64.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 60c | 62.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 61.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…e591backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 28c | 56.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 64c | 51.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6a8ebacked No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 49.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…a1c0backed No | 75c | 45.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 42c | 45.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 45.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 77c | 43.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 36c | 42.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 40.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…315cbacked No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 51c | 39.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 31c | 38.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 30c | 37.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 38c | 37.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 37.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…c6bbbacked No | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 32.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 31.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 30.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 61c | 30.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…a164backed Yes | 53c | 28.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 60c | 25.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ce…506cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 24.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 66c | 23.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 79c | 23.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ab…1a26backed No | 76c | 22.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 76c | 20.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 62c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 19.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 68c | 18.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 72c | 14.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.