South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc68fe5893c295d09d0792aea97741dd8695f25aae3878b6a79a794a4df85ede0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA Boca Juniorsof CA Boca Juniors, Recoleta FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked CA Boca Juniors | 18c | 999.97$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.98 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Recoleta FC | 33c | 992.68$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.93 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CA Boca Juniors | 76c | 867.03$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.17 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CA Boca Juniors | 35c | 371.14$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.74 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CA Boca Juniors | 48c | 365.42$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.62 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CA Boca Juniors | 26c | 362.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.24 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Recoleta FC | 56c | 346.4$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Recoleta FC | 52c | 247.38$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Recoleta FC | 48c | 185.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Recoleta FC | 50c | 180$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Recoleta FC | 45c | 125$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Recoleta FC | 34c | 115.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Recoleta FC | 63c | 81.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked CA Boca Juniors | 17c | 59.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed CA Boca Juniors | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed CA Boca Juniors | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed CA Boca Juniors | 78c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed CA Boca Juniors | 78c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-2.5)this page
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: CA Boca Juniors O/U 0.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: CA Boca Juniors O/U 1.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: CA Boca Juniors O/U 2.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 0.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 3.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 4.5Under won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 5.5Under won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors: Recoleta FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)CA Boca Juniors won
- Spread: Recoleta FC (-1.5)CA Boca Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.