TailMyPicks
Market

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Armenia win on 2025-09-09?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,418
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,418 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbdde…c019backed Yes77c11,919$9,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,798.81752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes27c10,466$2,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,652.164,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No35c7,988$2,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,758.6316331.9%52 W · 111 L-11.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed No16c6,888$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.556238.7%24 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+55.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked No77c6,128$4,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,718.563336.4%12 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No35c5,052$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.528133.1%93 W · 188 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes24c3,578$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,732.463243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked No77c2,590$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.888944.9%40 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked Yes69c2,500$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.37475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No77c2,414$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.3316244.4%72 W · 90 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed No77c2,083$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.083743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e86…93c2backed No50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-19.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes20c1,110$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.6117345.7%79 W · 94 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No43c976.25$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.643,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Yes79c830.15$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1741060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes68c820.93$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.9210366%68 W · 35 L+12.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+54.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Yes50c605$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.531945.1%144 W · 175 L+1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes78c479.04$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.241,00153.9%540 W · 461 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked No76c467.93$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.952445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa1…80f8backed Yes22c435.64$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.64450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+113.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes19c400.2$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.2813419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed No49c361.82$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.296844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf267…0a4cbacked No76c350$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2662737%10 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No16c309$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.365149%25 W · 26 L+13.7wins+0.27per pick22cpaid+416.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed No39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4107…4047backed No40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No78c236.37$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3721542.8%92 W · 123 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7308…c177backed Yes21c236.15$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.38560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+97.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a4c…6579backed No47c204$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.882227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb125…69ebbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207038.6%27 W · 43 L+11.0wins+0.16per pick23cpaid+69%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes21c181$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9947032.8%154 W · 316 L-0.7wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed Yes22c168.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.251827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-36.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebd3…c5f4backed No21c141$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.872055%11 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x063b…7328backed No79c126.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Yes23c120.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938148.1%39 W · 42 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf69…b3ffbacked No77c116.88$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Yes74c105.34$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.124647.6%117 W · 129 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032629.1%95 W · 231 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed No76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed No80c99.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6413654.4%74 W · 62 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x317e…a004backed Yes22c90.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.91580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+100.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x02c7…ee5cbacked Yes22c90.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.911957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Yes24c83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.083735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…d4d8backed No51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes50c67.8$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7322242.8%95 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacdf…0ec4backed Yes79c61.01$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.08850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3405…3e36backed Yes24c58.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.73633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x623d…8538backed Yes66c57.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes19c52.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9278927.5%217 W · 572 L+2.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No77c51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5135848.3%173 W · 185 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.514040.7%57 W · 83 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked No53c46.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254057.5%23 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ddd…6144backed No53c37.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked No75c36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276540%26 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No77c19.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4421140.3%85 W · 126 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c3…09a6backed No79c18.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.