Fifa International · resolved market
Will Armenia win on 2025-09-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc691b83eb880d30a3d74a15c7223f7b0429170a1ea949a30547893454f42abc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdde…c019backed Yes | 77c | 11,919$9,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,798.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 10,466$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,652.16 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 35c | 7,988$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.63 | 163 | 31.9%52 W · 111 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed No | 16c | 6,888$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.55 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked No | 77c | 6,128$4,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,718.56 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 35c | 5,052$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.5 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 24c | 3,578$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,732.46 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 77c | 2,590$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.88 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Yes | 69c | 2,500$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 77c | 2,414$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.33 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 77c | 2,083$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.08 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,110$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.61 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 43c | 976.25$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.64 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Yes | 79c | 830.15$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 68c | 820.93$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.92 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Yes | 50c | 605$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.5 | 319 | 45.1%144 W · 175 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 78c | 479.04$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 76c | 467.93$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.95 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…80f8backed Yes | 22c | 435.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 19c | 400.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.28 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 49c | 361.82$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.29 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 76c | 350$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 16c | 309$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +13.7wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +416.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…4047backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 78c | 236.37$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.37 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed Yes | 21c | 236.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 47c | 204$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 21c | 181$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 22c | 168.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed No | 21c | 141$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 23c | 120.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…b3ffbacked No | 77c | 116.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 74c | 105.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 80c | 99.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x317e…a004backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…ee5cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 50c | 67.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Yes | 79c | 61.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…3e36backed Yes | 24c | 58.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…8538backed Yes | 66c | 57.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 52.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 77c | 51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 53c | 46.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed No | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 77c | 19.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c3…09a6backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Armenia win on 2025-09-09?this page
- Will Armenia vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw?No won
- Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.