Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f784affdd5ea49b232786a99946be7fc0b679bb0b62054308ecf80b82ebda7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 63c | 828.71$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.07 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 366.41$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 36c | 312.62$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 30c | 211.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 62c | 203.13$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 60c | 170.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 40c | 157.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 14c | 146.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 21c | 137.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 103$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 43c | 95.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 37c | 94.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 91.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 67c | 89.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 55c | 72.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 65.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 24c | 63.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 40c | 63.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 43c | 54.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 57c | 49.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 58c | 48.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 36c | 47.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 63c | 43.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 42.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 64c | 41.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 57c | 40.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 64c | 39.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 43c | 38.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 54c | 36.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…1ec6backed Yes | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 61c | 33.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 35c | 32.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…5f67backed Yes | 43c | 30.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 54c | 29.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 58c | 28.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…61c1backed No | 51c | 27.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 38c | 27.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 27.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 49c | 26.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…717dbacked Yes | 53c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 47c | 25.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 55c | 24.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 68c | 24.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 57c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…d55fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 57c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.