Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22852c27e2ea9f63f450adbbb1760e28edbe7efcf075068e32356ef761143e32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 36c | 410.87$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 263.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 72c | 213.93$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 203.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 175.53$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 60c | 153.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 23c | 142.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 141.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 9c | 131.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 42c | 118.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 116.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 103.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 102$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 29c | 101.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 101.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 94.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 87.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 86.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 84.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 67c | 82.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…c8e8backed Yes | 31c | 81.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 81.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 23c | 73.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 70.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 46c | 69.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 20c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 59c | 67.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes | 45c | 67.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 62.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 78c | 60.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 59.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 58.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 57.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 38c | 51.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 51.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 75c | 49.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 49.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 44.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 56c | 44.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 26c | 44.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 44.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 43.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 70c | 42.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 40.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 38c | 36.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 30c | 33.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 26.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 59c | 23.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 22.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 79c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 71c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.