CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: STA (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7030ea9d31d16258cbae2205186da3d46195cf12d8a3d4ae01c310ec502ed23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof STATE, Fortress
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked STATE | 56c | 10,662$5,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,693.4 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Fortress | 44c | 6,146$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728.46 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…2549backed Fortress | 43c | 1,882$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Fortress | 46c | 1,144$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.64 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa28a…01c5backed STATE | 58c | 1,020$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.38 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed STATE | 54c | 754$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked Fortress | 43c | 693.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Fortress | 46c | 628.57$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.14 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…4e6abacked STATE | 54c | 584$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.64 | 265 | 54.3%144 W · 121 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a66…fa83backed Fortress | 45c | 495.08$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.05 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked Fortress | 45c | 437.78$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Fortress | 46c | 396.18$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 357 | 45.4%162 W · 195 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Fortress | 45c | 355$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.75 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Fortress | 41c | 310.73$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Fortress | 45c | 284.62$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 359 | 47.9%172 W · 187 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Fortress | 44c | 284.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4a…c078backed STATE | 54c | 250$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac33…fda0backed STATE | 62c | 238.13$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…d36dbacked Fortress | 44c | 227.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -8.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed STATE | 55c | 175.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…7559backed STATE | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Fortress | 41c | 151.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked STATE | 55c | 144.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 157 | 32.5%51 W · 106 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…45cebacked Fortress | 46c | 135.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…47edbacked Fortress | 44c | 128.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Fortress | 42c | 126.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…e901backed Fortress | 45c | 108.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed STATE | 55c | 86.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed Fortress | 44c | 77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed Fortress | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed Fortress | 45c | 33.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed STATE | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…53babacked STATE | 59c | 25.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 50cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbac…6b32backed STATE | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed STATE | 55c | 19.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: STA (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group ASTATE won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress - Map 1 WinnerSTATE won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress - Map 2 WinnerSTATE won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.