CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9fa76c7129bfdb3a36bd7ef8974daa1d9e50c67a4cca8b4e5e3052c3e95a661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof STATE, Fortress
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked STATE | 69c | 5,057$3,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.44 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Fortress | 34c | 3,226$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.98 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e84fbacked Fortress | 25c | 686.92$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed STATE | 71c | 559.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 190 | 61.6%117 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Fortress | 23c | 436$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Fortress | 26c | 419.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 482 | 40%193 W · 289 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Fortress | 26c | 294.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Fortress | 28c | 267.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 333 | 40.2%134 W · 199 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fortress | 10c | 235.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fortress | 28c | 224.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed STATE | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 358 | 61.7%221 W · 137 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Fortress | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed Fortress | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked STATE | 67c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Fortress | 26c | 130.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Fortress | 14c | 110.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 622 | 48.2%300 W · 322 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fortress | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed STATE | 75c | 62.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked STATE | 74c | 59.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed STATE | 71c | 56.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fortress | 29c | 53.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked STATE | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 723 | 53.5%387 W · 336 L | +28.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked STATE | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Fortress | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked STATE | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed STATE | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked STATE | 62c | 16.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group ASTATE won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress - Map 2 WinnerSTATE won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: STA (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5)STATE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.