CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaafc034fdd698e32248a9f44e80aa74160c7f215034f864f74727c651f573ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof STATE, Fortress
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Fortress | 17c | 6,077$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.91 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Fortress | 20c | 1,324$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.02 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…43f3backed Fortress | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Fortress | 18c | 877.39$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.93 | 336 | 27.7%93 W · 243 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed STATE | 76c | 814.47$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Fortress | 8c | 607.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed STATE | 77c | 520.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 190 | 61.6%117 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fortress | 15c | 519.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…9384backed Fortress | 18c | 490.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fortress | 16c | 471.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Fortress | 17c | 359$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Fortress | 13c | 319$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 883 | 30.7%271 W · 612 L | -63.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Fortress | 23c | 302.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 253 | 44.3%112 W · 141 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…34fbbacked Fortress | 16c | 293.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Fortress | 19c | 273.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 482 | 40%193 W · 289 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e84fbacked Fortress | 17c | 264.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Fortress | 19c | 264.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Fortress | 18c | 234$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 120 | 71.7%86 W · 34 L | +16.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…e15cbacked Fortress | 12c | 233.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Fortress | 23c | 219.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Fortress | 16c | 204$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 664 | 36.6%243 W · 421 L | -35.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Fortress | 18c | 202.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Fortress | 8c | 198$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 380 | 32.1%122 W · 258 L | -18.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…88f9backed STATE | 78c | 185.06$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 470 | 54%254 W · 216 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…1160backed Fortress | 23c | 183.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 414 | 37%153 W · 261 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Fortress | 19c | 162.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fortress | 23c | 158.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Fortress | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Fortress | 9c | 140.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffae…55c0backed Fortress | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Fortress | 16c | 136.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Fortress | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Fortress | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…ca89backed Fortress | 9c | 128.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed STATE | 77c | 122.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Fortress | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fortress | 22c | 81.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…2711backed Fortress | 17c | 78.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed STATE | 77c | 78.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Fortress | 19c | 71.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 526 | 45.1%237 W · 289 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Fortress | 21c | 68.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…1999backed Fortress | 21c | 66.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Fortress | 15c | 66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Fortress | 18c | 61.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked STATE | 80c | 58.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked Fortress | 19c | 56.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd85…1d60backed STATE | 76c | 52.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Fortress | 21c | 48.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Fortress | 24c | 41.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…ab76backed STATE | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 338 | 49.7%168 W · 170 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…cd1dbacked STATE | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked STATE | 75c | 21.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked STATE | 77c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 132 | 44.7%59 W · 73 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed STATE | 79c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked STATE | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group Athis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress - Map 1 WinnerSTATE won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress - Map 2 WinnerSTATE won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: STA (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5)STATE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.