MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc71c8c7da4dfaee9504cb7965f702a64497e3fd1ce7ab9c63693e0a137b10d0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 46c | 1,801$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.52 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,739$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.66 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 1,735$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.35 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 1,436$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 56c | 1,432$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.09 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 42c | 1,345$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.55 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Over | 46c | 1,200$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.98 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 54c | 979.21$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.44 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…cf21backed Under | 58c | 960.77$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.52 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 46c | 783$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.18 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 54c | 563.65$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.28 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Under | 55c | 537.45$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.85 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 383.04$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.33 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 378.17$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 46c | 349.18$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Over | 47c | 210.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 66c | 118.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 45c | 111.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 55c | 108.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7192…7000backed Under | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 53c | 64.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 53c | 52.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…2e49backed Under | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Over | 46c | 41.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 60c | 37.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 46c | 35.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…3c57backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Under | 53c | 29.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 29.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 66c | 17.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.