MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x744e3224320c8a0418b6d4264214e6bfb10afba99586011270a70f4572c82181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked San Diego Padres | 14c | 5,184$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,450.77 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 5,039$2,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.8 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 4,931$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,859.17 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 822.48$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.84 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed Colorado Rockies | 4c | 637.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 540.02$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 502.55$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 441.48$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 414.09$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.34 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 399.98$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.99 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Diego Padres | 29c | 358.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.68 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 327.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 240.56$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 218.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 192.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 179.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 151.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Colorado Rockies | 36c | 116.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Colorado Rockies | 65c | 107.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Colorado Rockies | 69c | 101.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 80.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 80.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 80.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 76.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 63.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 62.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 59.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…a62dbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 55.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1759…49e5backed San Diego Padres | 19c | 53.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 51.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 44.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 41.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 40.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 33.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Colorado Rockies | 56c | 32.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 25.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…685cbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 24.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Colorado Rockies | 45c | 23.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Diego Padres | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.