MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc73b18f3049acf03603db3112ede732b463aee48805352d27dc02dd376526cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 3,498$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.97 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 47c | 2,445$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.06 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 1,665$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.87 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 49c | 1,578$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.22 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 47c | 1,547$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.09 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 1,274$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Over | 52c | 952.02$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.22 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 2c | 844.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 680.86$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 51c | 585.36$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.83 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 63c | 554.65$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.65 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Over | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 492$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.24 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 51c | 415$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.35 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 54c | 399.59$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 304.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 62c | 303.1$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.22 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Under | 46c | 302$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4b…1ff9backed Over | 53c | 249.64$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 18c | 249.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 47c | 240$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Under | 11c | 206.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 22c | 201$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 52c | 149$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 138.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Under | 45c | 135.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 50c | 133$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 51c | 123.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 48c | 110.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…4ea7backed Over | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 24c | 101.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 46c | 86.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 46c | 75.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 46c | 75.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 46c | 74.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 51c | 74.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 70c | 69.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 65c | 45.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2030…67f9backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 49c | 40.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…aebebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf770…f4bdbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 30c | 33.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 46c | 30.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 49c | 23.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Over | 67c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 48c | 20.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25da…56ccbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.