MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc58fb1b407d97d0701f8e3213f5161f061499d0130e7305b951eea0e66eebe36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Under | 62c | 5,744$3,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,559.3 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 38c | 2,465$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.17 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…e809backed Under | 47c | 2,200$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 1,548$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 53c | 1,431$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.4 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2a6fbacked Over | 42c | 832.85$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 38c | 730$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.6 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 53c | 692$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.56 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 54c | 616.79$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.41 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Over | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 64c | 415.78$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.3 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 60c | 366.3$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 268.91$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 62c | 195$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 39c | 170$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 62c | 145.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Over | 38c | 133$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Under | 50c | 132.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 171 | 59.1%101 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 38c | 115.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 38c | 115.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 38c | 111$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Under | 51c | 110.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 38c | 78.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 30c | 53.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 38c | 46.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 44.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 38c | 41.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 40c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Over | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 63c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…4440backed Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.