World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc768f20679d15b7935e70d67f23a06503afff941b68d8f320a821441f18b4431
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,346 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46cb…1134backed Yes | 0c | 14,128$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3b…9c2dbacked Yes | 2c | 8,486$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0544…83b2backed Yes | 1c | 5,470$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…13b3backed Yes | 0c | 5,396$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…321ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,843$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,633$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,329$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…a7a7backed Yes | 1c | 3,877$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…3e48backed Yes | 1c | 3,604$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,512$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…4824backed Yes | 1c | 3,420$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3f…d003backed Yes | 1c | 3,205$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 0c | 3,108$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 0c | 2,826$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…024abacked Yes | 1c | 2,323$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…6221backed Yes | 1c | 2,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…9548backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,040$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,034$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…5503backed Yes | 1c | 1,959$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes | 1c | 1,841$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…2c95backed Yes | 1c | 1,741$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 1,256$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 1c | 978.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2447…0486backed Yes | 4c | 764.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?this page
- No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.