TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
New York Metsof New York Mets, Seattle Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,508 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets74c2,192$1,620 inWon+$572.018,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bff…47f6backed Seattle Mariners68c1,995$1,353 inLost-$1,352.982250%11 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners63c913$577 inLost-$576.674,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets40c579.28$230 inWon+$349.78,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets31c504.21$156 inWon+$347.94,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Seattle Mariners71c422.53$300 inLost-$3002,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Seattle Mariners69c380$262 inLost-$262.289053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets34c334.5$113 inWon+$221.7610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners27c290.42$78 inLost-$77.9412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked New York Mets79c179.38$141 inWon+$38.5372655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed New York Mets31c170.67$53 inWon+$118.053,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Seattle Mariners69c109.78$76 inLost-$75.751,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Seattle Mariners23c108.7$25 inLost-$2526747.9%128 W · 139 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners26c97.73$25 inLost-$25.168,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Seattle Mariners22c73.77$16 inLost-$16.2321852.8%115 W · 103 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd6…81f6backed Seattle Mariners72c68.86$50 inLost-$49.5810864.8%70 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Seattle Mariners51c42.3$22 inLost-$21.511,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Seattle Mariners69c30$21 inLost-$20.71,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked New York Mets76c27.36$21 inWon+$6.5770154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners68c25$17 inLost-$176,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Mariners69c21.3$15 inLost-$14.72,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked New York Mets80c20$16 inWon+$437551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets76c15.78$12 inWon+$3.792,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.