MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9070f8f2eaf4144363db17e5a73b4d206668d0f33f1dca0b22b40c4b9ef6879d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 15,574$7,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,887.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 49c | 9,591$4,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,885.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 48c | 7,171$3,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,739.84 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 4,556$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 2,836$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Mets | 50c | 2,810$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.74 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 2,027$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked New York Mets | 56c | 1,051$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.5 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed New York Mets | 51c | 968.65$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.83 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed New York Mets | 56c | 614.68$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.46 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked New York Mets | 53c | 597$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.59 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked New York Mets | 57c | 577.09$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.15 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Mets | 51c | 541.98$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.57 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed New York Mets | 51c | 454.79$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.85 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 66c | 440.98$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 437.44$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed New York Mets | 61c | 326.23$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.23 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…0ce3backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 199.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 161$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 54c | 101.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked New York Mets | 50c | 79.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4788…6bc3backed New York Mets | 57c | 67.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked New York Mets | 53c | 65.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Seattle Mariners | 29c | 64.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed New York Mets | 57c | 63.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 65c | 50.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 47.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 43.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked New York Mets | 56c | 40.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed New York Mets | 57c | 39.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed New York Mets | 57c | 39.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked New York Mets | 57c | 39.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 34.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 34.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…ae63backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Mets | 59c | 33.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked New York Mets | 57c | 32.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed New York Mets | 57c | 30.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 29.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 26.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed New York Mets | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets | 50c | 23.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed New York Mets | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…f0a9backed New York Mets | 56c | 21.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed New York Mets | 55c | 19.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked New York Mets | 56c | 18.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.