MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ffe9a9a48cc9da3b97c6481d548012b1c067ddb12d54072de519537fce79060
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 51c | 7,251$3,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,698.02 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 37c | 5,915$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,728.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,971$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 1,867$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 1,705$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Over | 51c | 1,220$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.04 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…2de2backed Under | 72c | 889.51$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 43c | 839.98$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.8 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 59c | 786$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.74 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked Over | 34c | 735.29$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…d601backed Over | 37c | 707.24$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.82 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 622.06$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 613.05$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Over | 60c | 556.43$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.86 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 66c | 494.12$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.82 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 40c | 474.85$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.65 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 45c | 430.67$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 28c | 250.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 55c | 243.42$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f5…09ddbacked Over | 33c | 199.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 70c | 154.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 43c | 138.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 137.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 43c | 108.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 75.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 28c | 72.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…0a49backed Over | 47c | 64.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 39c | 60.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 59.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 60c | 57.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 59c | 57.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 32c | 55.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 45c | 55.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 42c | 54.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…241cbacked Under | 42c | 52.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 62c | 48.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 53c | 42.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 55c | 38.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…64d2backed Over | 34c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 56c | 35.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Over | 31c | 32.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 50c | 31.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 42c | 26.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Over | 61c | 24.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 47c | 22.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe70…bb1dbacked Under | 69c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.