MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80285edf3e70343039d66226519996893af4d5ccc75f93b5687d672179bc580e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 66c | 6,735$4,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283.55 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 25c | 3,784$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 3,063$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.77 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…53a9backed Under | 37c | 2,105$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Over | 43c | 1,994$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.05 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 26c | 1,877$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.29 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 53c | 1,536$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.57 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 1,354$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.6 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 61c | 1,347$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.52 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 53c | 1,226$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 58c | 1,211$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.68 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 52c | 1,073$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.11 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 975.51$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.09 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 58c | 805.52$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.73 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 47c | 679.36$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.86 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 670.64$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.92 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Under | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 42c | 500.93$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Under | 42c | 458.83$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.12 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Under | 71c | 415.49$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 392.21$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.43 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 293.36$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.69 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f5…09ddbacked Over | 33c | 271.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 29c | 248.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.46 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 39c | 244.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…1c6abacked Over | 69c | 210.14$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 61c | 209.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 60c | 200.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 74c | 170.21$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 62c | 129.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…3f2cbacked Over | 68c | 102$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 43c | 82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 62c | 80.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 43c | 75.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 71.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 59c | 63.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 28c | 63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…241cbacked Under | 28c | 51.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…1ccabacked Over | 79c | 50.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 73c | 47.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Over | 43c | 43.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 62c | 41.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 326 | 56.7%185 W · 141 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…3484backed Under | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 67c | 34.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 38c | 29.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Over | 43c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Over | 43c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Over | 43c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 43c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 40c | 25.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Over | 64c | 21.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…ae63backed Over | 75c | 21.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 57c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 61c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.