MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe136520e89a3781c4fc38597911075d968b1bf2e54132cc2c1e6ccae0f0ac4ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 6,663$3,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,517.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 4,248$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 51c | 2,062$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.43 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Over | 51c | 2,039$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Under | 49c | 2,004$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.26 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 1,512$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 49c | 1,190$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 1,085$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 832.5$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 77c | 712.48$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.87 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 678.83$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 40c | 649.52$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.78 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 51c | 572.2$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.82 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 566$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…1c6abacked Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 77c | 380$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 52c | 375.46$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.24 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 60c | 275$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 266.91$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 36c | 193.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 60c | 122.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 122.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f5…09ddbacked Over | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…1ad7backed Under | 55c | 91.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 88.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 49c | 82.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 23c | 81.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 51c | 77.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 51c | 69.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 51c | 65.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 52c | 65.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 52c | 65.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 52c | 65.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 52c | 65.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 52c | 65.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Over | 52c | 65.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Over | 19c | 60.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 50c | 33.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 37c | 31.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 48c | 30.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 47c | 28.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Under | 72c | 27.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 48c | 24.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 47c | 23.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…760ebacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Under | 54c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.