MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf9fe07d35dd622927ca55c319316e7ec6356401145ea03ecbd941d93db6b5ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Seattle Mariners, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 62c | 3,160$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed New York Mets | 60c | 2,477$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.19 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,890$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.1 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 1,645$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.83 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,447$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 61c | 999.97$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 847.37$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 516.12$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 68c | 504$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed New York Mets | 61c | 502.15$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.98 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed New York Mets | 62c | 460$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 62c | 303$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 273.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 240$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 132.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Mets | 62c | 108$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 62c | 77.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 74.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked New York Mets | 71c | 40.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets | 73c | 32.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…02debacked New York Mets | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 29.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed New York Mets | 61c | 21.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.