Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7bbcefd9d8250744acac792cbc2a861c4f9af2e1c87c67536c163375d790b14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 274.88$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 20c | 209.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 146.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 14c | 141.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 127.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 45c | 110.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 106.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 70c | 104.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 88.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 65c | 85.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 71.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 71.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 65c | 60.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 57.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 62c | 55.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 60c | 52.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 52.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 29c | 48.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 45.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 44.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 42.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 42.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 40.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 38.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 38.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 37.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 36.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 34.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 31.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…f6a4backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 27.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 66c | 27.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 37c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 26.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 24.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 20.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 78c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 19.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.