Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7bd2d6485b2e38807efe600cec7f7be46bff7267f14f69aa4b1efcce24676f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 607.4$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.71 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 50c | 469.19$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.11 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 31c | 382.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.61 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 332.38$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 251.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…375bbacked Yes | 54c | 249.35$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 51c | 172.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 75c | 143.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 122.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 22c | 115$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +232.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 45c | 94.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 89.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 86.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked No | 73c | 74.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 37c | 73.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…5e0dbacked Yes | 48c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 66.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 35c | 56.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 40c | 53.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 35c | 51.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 40c | 50.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 30c | 49.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 46.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Yes | 32c | 45.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 44c | 45.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af2…ff54backed Yes | 31c | 44.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 67c | 44.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…e484backed No | 70c | 42.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 57c | 41.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 62c | 40.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…6473backed No | 74c | 37.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 61c | 36.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…2891backed No | 74c | 36.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 35.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 30.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 72c | 28.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 68c | 27.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 49c | 26.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…a87abacked No | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.