Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7cfba4c3b81fb4e74eee84262e4d8173295851b4f9bdffa69b22c36ffec6901
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 78c | 1,250$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 22c | 1,091$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…456cbacked No | 79c | 885.58$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 25c | 601$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.25 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 21c | 274.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 58c | 252.8$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 11c | 174.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…96a1backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4467…6a75backed Yes | 68c | 96.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 53c | 78.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 58c | 47.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa beat Wolverhampton?Yes won
- Will Wolverhampton beat Aston Villa?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.