Premier League · resolved market
Will Wolverhampton beat Aston Villa?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7e0a7f320db0775d83952cb0fce1373966a0e36e25b875bb8f74980c6cf1552
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,250$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 50c | 701$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.5 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 16c | 667.51$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 67c | 600.6$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.36 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 55c | 541$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.5 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 16c | 532.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed No | 50c | 460$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +211.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 17c | 371.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a5…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 276.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 16c | 239.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…ca57backed Yes | 18c | 167.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…96a1backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad0…bcbcbacked Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a5…6f1fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…7c7abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 16c | 89.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eef…198abacked Yes | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fc…d0afbacked Yes | 18c | 74.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31e…384cbacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…f913backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wolverhampton beat Aston Villa?this page
- Will Aston Villa beat Wolverhampton?Yes won
- Will Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.