TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,848 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6027…4320backed No53c711.53$377 inLost-$377.1184049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd958…f864backed No54c357.62$195 inLost-$194.842045%9 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-29.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes45c264.21$120 inWon+$144.358,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73aa…409bbacked Yes47c232$109 inWon+$122.962142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Yes47c170.21$80 inWon+$90.2128639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No41c126.12$51 inLost-$51.3754715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes47c117.14$55 inWon+$62.492,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes47c105.5$50 inWon+$55.9134044.4%151 W · 189 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Yes66c100.9$67 inWon+$34.1126762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Yes47c63.82$30 inWon+$33.8211148.6%54 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Yes56c54.56$31 inWon+$24.0162554.2%339 W · 286 L+23.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Yes47c54$25 inWon+$28.6228147.7%134 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d8…400bbacked Yes47c42$20 inWon+$22.2611843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d3…2996backed Yes48c25.1$12 inWon+$13.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No53c21.28$11 inLost-$11.281,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.