World Politics · resolved market
Will SPD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7fdf2f2f2975b5aad279aab1d6b19e684f9dbeeb7b338e861902a41e8d0d246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5431…47e1backed No | 7c | 38,470$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,697.54 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 9c | 10,100$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 6c | 6,955$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.58 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 29c | 2,957$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.61 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed No | 53c | 1,944$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes | 32c | 1,386$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 6c | 1,249$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 6c | 1,166$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 67c | 999.98$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.49 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 64c | 965.72$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.9 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 26c | 834.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.44 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…059ebacked Yes | 32c | 706.27$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…051cbacked No | 53c | 581.15$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…33cfbacked No | 71c | 551.21$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed No | 68c | 509.56$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 28c | 477.19$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.87 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 28c | 447.77$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 41c | 323.82$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.22 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 29c | 299.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…6d83backed Yes | 32c | 267$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 71c | 254.12$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.43 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked No | 79c | 253.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…96c2backed Yes | 22c | 252$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 251.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked No | 79c | 218.6$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcf…9aeebacked Yes | 24c | 218.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked No | 60c | 210$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 31c | 206.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.84 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c89…9fa4backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 28c | 183.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 33c | 159.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 47c | 149.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes | 33c | 148$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 21c | 147.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…3115backed Yes | 33c | 133.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked No | 71c | 106.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 67c | 105.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…6141backed Yes | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 61.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…52f3backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…a867backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…a889backed Yes | 28c | 41.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d5…3a9cbacked Yes | 68c | 34.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 71c | 32.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9f…af72backed No | 76c | 32.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 79c | 30.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…8501backed No | 74c | 26.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed No | 72c | 17.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SPD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election?this page
- Will AfD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election?No won
- Will BSW win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.