World Politics · resolved market
Will AfD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6632fc24e5c917cf5972a36b3a28f25b89759d2624b17badb1cea4bef1bf7f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 10c | 24,565$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 10c | 15,000$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89db…8d9ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 5c | 8,780$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.8 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes | 2c | 6,970$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 5,937$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.22 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 18c | 4,511$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 29c | 4,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,839.97 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a3…eb9cbacked Yes | 27c | 3,210$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc4…7a15backed Yes | 71c | 2,818$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…051cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,575$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…6d83backed Yes | 72c | 2,075$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 53c | 1,527$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.17 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 17c | 1,271$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd4…50fabacked Yes | 10c | 1,251$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked No | 30c | 1,072$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 65c | 848.71$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.04 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 21c | 787.02$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.75 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes | 45c | 777.78$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb78…073cbacked Yes | 6c | 736.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…f4e9backed Yes | 48c | 699.92$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 11c | 650.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5eb…d4c2backed Yes | 75c | 650.31$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes | 71c | 618.12$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed No | 46c | 607.28$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 74c | 591.76$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.73 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 31c | 566.38$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.64 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 32c | 521.16$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.9 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 18c | 517.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…d170backed Yes | 59c | 512.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…3115backed No | 26c | 506.73$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed No | 30c | 472.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd3…389cbacked Yes | 67c | 468.22$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 42c | 448.65$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.41 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 448.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.61 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768e…8f5fbacked Yes | 71c | 353.58$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…395dbacked Yes | 6c | 331.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 32c | 312.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.71 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed No | 60c | 303.7$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f57…7a66backed Yes | 45c | 303.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…e67dbacked No | 33c | 295.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…059ebacked Yes | 19c | 293.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…a867backed Yes | 33c | 280.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…ac82backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 23c | 249.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Yes | 79c | 228$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 20c | 222$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 220.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…081dbacked Yes | 10c | 211.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 67c | 206.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 80c | 204.05$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4036…2e1abacked Yes | 73c | 200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 67c | 178.35$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c62…7c5cbacked Yes | 32c | 159.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb248…0c6dbacked No | 65c | 153.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 73c | 150$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…cd00backed Yes | 78c | 146$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 22c | 144.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 77c | 142.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked Yes | 52c | 105.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 79c | 105.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e75…54d0backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…0307backed Yes | 59c | 93.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…123bbacked Yes | 79c | 88.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 77c | 87.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 70c | 84.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…a829backed Yes | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…040fbacked No | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…adf2backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761e…1e8abacked Yes | 69c | 62.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…efb1backed Yes | 69c | 59.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…382fbacked Yes | 72c | 55.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…52f3backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb837…dca9backed Yes | 80c | 49.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…ef03backed No | 35c | 45.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbe…5e1abacked Yes | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…e4c7backed Yes | 73c | 40.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f93…d252backed Yes | 75c | 39.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff47…bd89backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 32c | 35.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 80c | 35.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…dc9dbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…277dbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e12…0f8abacked Yes | 69c | 25.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4353…35e1backed Yes | 74c | 19.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 75c | 15.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…ba8abacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…43dbbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7a…0585backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AfD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election?this page
- Will BSW win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election?No won
- Will SPD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.