MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc81809a93301a7204f61ffff24b75b3fe37fd3a410857618d77deef26bf6bcae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 8,954$2,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 3,935$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.81 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 54c | 2,426$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.13 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 63c | 2,013$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.9 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 1,724$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.88 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.15 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 44c | 1,088$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.28 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 43c | 1,037$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.06 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 62c | 1,018$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.56 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.04 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 44c | 902.47$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 900$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 56c | 625$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 620.28$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 572$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 43c | 515.86$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.88 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Under | 62c | 425.76$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.79 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 398$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.87 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 293.56$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 55c | 230.62$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 56c | 207.73$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 190.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…14b8backed Under | 68c | 169.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 45c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 45c | 137.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 48c | 134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 65c | 132.78$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 123$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 119.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 28c | 119.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 62c | 112$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Over | 57c | 109.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 29c | 95.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Over | 35c | 88.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 67c | 82.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Over | 30c | 76.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 75.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 71c | 55.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 36c | 48.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Over | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Under | 42c | 41.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…4261backed Under | 62c | 38.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6975…06e1backed Over | 58c | 35.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 47c | 28.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 54c | 25.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Over | 58c | 25.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 75c | 24.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.