MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1e8a95a073f8cbb4bc637b968cea3fcbbf11dbd8b200310d52cf19ac7d572be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 47c | 15,000$7,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,050 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 7,495$3,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,522.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 55c | 5,963$3,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,656.18 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 55c | 2,311$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.95 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 2,159$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked Over | 39c | 1,568$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.75 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 56c | 1,444$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.36 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Under | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 20c | 636.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.22 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 600$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 53c | 585$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.95 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 568.5$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 24c | 513.46$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 510.96$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.04 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 498$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.37 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…8ab1backed Under | 79c | 414.24$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 383.17$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 374.7$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 368.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…e0e7backed Under | 55c | 280$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 275.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 61c | 262.46$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 233$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 76c | 216.89$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 54c | 199$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 39c | 165$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 139.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 104.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 74c | 95.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…5cdcbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 75.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc28…ede2backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 27c | 72.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Over | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Under | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 66c | 52.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…85f0backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Under | 64c | 36.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Under | 63c | 35.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 56c | 35.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 54c | 24.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…a781backed Under | 57c | 21.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 72c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.