Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc86225f78179c207fe929f9627c17710c16ae2c36b96df469c437fd05521a8c5

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $106,111
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $111,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,111 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x183d…1270backed Yes	3c	10,000$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.79	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+39.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed Yes	17c	5,000$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ba…f893backed Yes	17c	4,866$827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827.22	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+52.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	7c	3,787$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.37	2,101	43.6%917 W · 1,184 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes	18c	2,678$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab64…a24abacked Yes	0c	2,606$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb22a…8e6cbacked Yes	18c	2,419$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.9wins	-0.26per pick	53cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74ba…f2c5backed Yes	18c	1,898$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05cb…c743backed Yes	19c	1,684$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes	18c	1,666$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.43	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes	16c	1,500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	243	27.2%66 W · 177 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3483…2c80backed Yes	18c	1,301$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.18	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	2c	1,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Yes	17c	1,150$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Yes	2c	1,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	107	17.8%19 W · 88 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes	18c	1,090$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.2	161	44.1%71 W · 90 L	-13.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes	18c	1,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	61	41%25 W · 36 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab75…e336backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-50%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9749…d3a6backed Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e6…dd8abacked Yes	2c	924.49$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe521…9caebacked Yes	19c	789.47$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.12per pick	17cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes	18c	752$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.38	434	27.4%119 W · 315 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Yes	5c	745.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+4.3wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed Yes	17c	745$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.65	95	40%38 W · 57 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2147…a818backed Yes	3c	721.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.15per pick	31cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes	3c	684.51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	206	39.3%81 W · 125 L	+25.6wins	+0.12per pick	27cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x63f9…0f1bbacked Yes	20c	540$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc64f…3577backed Yes	18c	514.78$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.66	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	86	26.7%23 W · 63 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2d1…84a2backed Yes	17c	500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	80	38.8%31 W · 49 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d7f…a00dbacked Yes	18c	416.67$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe62e…8147backed Yes	4c	394.51$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.44	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes	17c	300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	+241.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Yes	17c	294.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f7…a09ebacked Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes	17c	256.53$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.61	637	48.4%308 W · 329 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf399…287ebacked Yes	17c	250$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes	14c	247.06$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	94	26.6%25 W · 69 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Yes	5c	246$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	123	44.7%55 W · 68 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc079…8accbacked Yes	17c	238$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.46	48	33.3%16 W · 32 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c03…1c9fbacked Yes	18c	222.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.98	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a1e…21a1backed Yes	18c	215.89$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.86	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc855…1994backed Yes	17c	205.88$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	-4.0wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb9c…5a62backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae9d…d417backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f0…6fb4backed No	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes	19c	164.3$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.22	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03e7…5284backed Yes	18c	140$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Yes	18c	138.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1877…78d7backed Yes	19c	132.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe05b…0912backed Yes	19c	131.58$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+16%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	24.6%14 W · 43 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a09…76e9backed Yes	18c	110$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	55	40%22 W · 33 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03c7…b091backed Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae1…d85abacked Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	91	50.5%46 W · 45 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3435…a117backed Yes	20c	94.65$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.93	49	28.6%14 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes	18c	92.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	123	46.3%57 W · 66 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x726b…c72bbacked Yes	18c	84.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Yes	17c	79$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Yes	17c	74.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	46	32.6%15 W · 31 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f85…87d5backed Yes	18c	71.28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	59	32.2%19 W · 40 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked Yes	19c	64.62$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b4…f93bbacked Yes	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?this page
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-18?Yes won
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-18?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event