Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc86a9a5959de04a5d66d50d5a22deb321fae0d9ea0bbb6c7d08797e4ebda7e5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 5c | 1,099$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 8c | 759.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 11c | 500.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 20c | 500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 490.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 10c | 452.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 5c | 423.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 333.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 11c | 268.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 10c | 265.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 11c | 240$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 9c | 232.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 212.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 170.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 157.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 152.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 145.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 140.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 8c | 139.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 25c | 138.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…6f7bbacked Yes | 8c | 123.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 14c | 120.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 78c | 110.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 11c | 105.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 26c | 75.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 74c | 67.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 74c | 67.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 74c | 67.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d8…ec63backed Yes | 26c | 59.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 50.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.