Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fdf5365b039c2d9a1d3c3261a8fdb63eab2f9d218a4161e267fb2831e786994
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 3,357$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.24 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 11c | 2,321$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.92 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 13c | 2,167$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.73 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 4c | 1,804$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,547$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.75 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 21c | 1,300$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.37 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 1,289$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 895.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 14c | 841.65$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 14c | 638.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 631.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 17c | 514.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 392.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 6c | 344.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 18c | 307.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 15c | 303.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 23c | 271.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 11c | 263.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 19c | 261.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 23c | 261.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 254.83$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 225.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed No | 79c | 224.53$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…afb4backed Yes | 26c | 215.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 10c | 199.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 14c | 199.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 191.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 17c | 174.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 151.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 148.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d5…116dbacked Yes | 10c | 143.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 130.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 13c | 123.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 18c | 120.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 109.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0600…cf03backed Yes | 11c | 104.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 22c | 102.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 13c | 98.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 96.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 70c | 96.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 43c | 94.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 83.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 15c | 82.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 13c | 82.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ee…bbbcbacked Yes | 24c | 79.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…dbb2backed Yes | 30c | 78.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 67.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 22c | 66.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 80c | 61.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 72c | 59.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…5d76backed Yes | 52c | 57.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 51.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 28.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 27.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 77c | 20.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed No | 80c | 19.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 72c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 77c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2228…e009backed No | 75c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 73c | 15.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 76c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.