Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f57692655693cd863b1ad08bdc3088712039ca40a112555af20f1608c99dac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,678$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 1,290$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,124$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 24c | 1,102$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.28 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 23c | 715.03$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 26c | 708.11$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.72 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 19c | 531.38$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 509.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 441.89$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 399.27$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 388.12$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 374.83$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 373.03$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 350.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.84 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 71c | 350$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 346.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 22c | 330.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 324.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 31c | 323.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 322.68$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 73c | 315$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 314.71$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 16c | 307.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 77c | 268.96$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 27c | 253.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 35c | 251.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 244.93$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 233$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 11c | 223.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 213.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed No | 60c | 198.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 177.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 78c | 172.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed No | 71c | 168.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 48c | 167.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 18c | 163.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 31c | 162.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 19c | 161$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 23c | 156.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 40c | 154.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 32c | 150.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 146.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 136.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 31c | 129.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 30c | 129.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 31c | 128.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 127.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 79c | 126.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 29c | 125.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 121.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 115$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 60c | 114.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 114.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 29c | 112.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 74c | 107.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 21c | 107.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 103.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 103.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86b…f471backed Yes | 24c | 101.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 23c | 101.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 43c | 100.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 32c | 96.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 64c | 94.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 89.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 86.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed No | 80c | 85.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…6f7bbacked Yes | 26c | 82.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 40c | 80.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 77c | 80.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 57c | 74.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked No | 60c | 74.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 28c | 72.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 71.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 25c | 67.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 35c | 65.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 65.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…8de4backed No | 77c | 65.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed No | 67c | 62.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 60.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…d48cbacked Yes | 19c | 60.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 33c | 60.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 80c | 60.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 60c | 58.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed Yes | 35c | 57.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 23c | 56.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 39c | 56.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 32c | 55.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.