Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa79df80c11924ca14976a9660babe9c23f57422a6fee383071f1b12ee1988225
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 46c | 3,755$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.05 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 8c | 2,173$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 24c | 1,760$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.62 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…c6d1backed No | 8c | 1,067$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 901.68$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 868.62$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 48c | 796.51$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.65 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 39c | 724.38$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 58c | 668.37$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.24 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 621.95$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 614.84$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 61c | 570$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.92 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 51c | 568.6$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.79 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 58c | 500$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 440.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…7827backed No | 3c | 377.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 365.19$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 40c | 361.69$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.07 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 349.63$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.3 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 36c | 339.87$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 337$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 321.31$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.82 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 309.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 40c | 308.23$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 297.57$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.54 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 67c | 275.28$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 18c | 267.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 249.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 43c | 248.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 41c | 235.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.72 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 213.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…b30ebacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 55c | 200.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…685ebacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 46c | 192.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 50c | 183$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 34c | 179.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…d48cbacked No | 49c | 177.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 173.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 60c | 164$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 51c | 158.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 32c | 156.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 155.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 54c | 152.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked No | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 145.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 136.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 68c | 131.86$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 123.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 114.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 112.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 28c | 106.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 53c | 104.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 36c | 104.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 100.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 42c | 100.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 96.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 54c | 96.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 36c | 95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 42c | 93.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 50c | 89.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 62c | 86.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 58c | 86.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 84.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 50c | 80.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 59c | 74.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 71.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 58c | 70.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 27c | 66.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 66.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 48c | 65.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 65.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ee…bbbcbacked Yes | 45c | 62.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 55c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 59.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 42c | 59.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 58.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 30c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 69c | 57.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 55c | 56.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…f2c6backed Yes | 42c | 55.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 49.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 40c | 47.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.