Fifa International · resolved market
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc877fc8356b1ba729ec3c8c830eb6358ef268c450490afe02e3916f5b23533f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 29c | 3,207$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.42 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 71c | 2,272$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.07 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 1,024$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.66 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 799.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 665.52$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.85 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 30c | 596.32$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.43 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…6b9cbacked Yes | 49c | 509.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.31 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 411.96$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.27 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 66c | 369.49$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.95 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 80c | 312.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +12.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 78c | 282.65$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +10.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 31c | 224.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.25 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 219.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked No | 18c | 184.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 455 | 28.4%129 W · 326 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 70c | 177.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 864 | 52.7%455 W · 409 L | +26.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 67c | 154.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd904…e16bbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…0d48backed Yes | 34c | 147.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 28c | 134.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 368 | 38.6%142 W · 226 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 66c | 117.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f8…a9efbacked Yes | 33c | 92.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 114 | 22.8%26 W · 88 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2464…1b98backed Yes | 35c | 88.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94ac…cd94backed Yes | 30c | 86.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 285 | 44.6%127 W · 158 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…3445backed Yes | 30c | 82.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…6258backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1606…9a7cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…7965backed Yes | 31c | 51.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed No | 70c | 22.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australia to score first vs. Türkiye?this page
- Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first?No won
- Türkiye to score first vs. Australia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.