Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8b08d816ea74658de39d6899516c7c246597ab3b2896a9ed82418dbebac384b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 393.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 355.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 76c | 278.51$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 202$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 179.52$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 14c | 162.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 149.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 132.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 128.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 124.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 116.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 111.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 30c | 107.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 25c | 93.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 25c | 90.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 88.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 23c | 82.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 26c | 74.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 77c | 72.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 69.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 68.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 52.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 50.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 24c | 42.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 38.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 34.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 77c | 32.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 76c | 27.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 16.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc197…3099backed No | 73c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…a523backed No | 76c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 77c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.