Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d265210bf5fffdaec2ba83bc17727ebfb93236c2928e32628be600130b92bb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 736.77$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.27 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 337.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 307.54$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 275$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.99 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 263.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 242.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 186.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 179.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed No | 65c | 153.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 135$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 73c | 130.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 126$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 121.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 22c | 112.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 19c | 112.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 106.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Yes | 29c | 104.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad80…eca5backed Yes | 29c | 104.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 101.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 79c | 96.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 73c | 95.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 95.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 77.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 74.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 70c | 72.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 71.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 69.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 67.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 38c | 60.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 62c | 57.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 62c | 55.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 53.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 50.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 46.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 45.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 43.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 41.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 72c | 38.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 38.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 66c | 38.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 36.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 35.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 34.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 45c | 31.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 56c | 30.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 66c | 29.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 27.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 27.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 74c | 25.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 20.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 18.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.